[Folda] Fwd:?==?utf-8?q? [Jhi] Talk Tomorrow 15:00 Icelandic Met Office - Mauro Rosi - Eruption Forecasting and Hazard Evaluation

[Siqi Li]

-------- Original Message -------- 
Subject: [Jhi] Talk Tomorrow 15:00 Icelandic Met Office - Mauro Rosi - Eruption Forecasting and Hazard Evaluation 
Date: Monday, October 23, 2017 09:03 GMT 
From: Maxwell Christopher Brown <maxwell at hi.is> 
To: jhi at hi.is 
 
 
Dear all,

Þriðjudaginn 24. október kl. 15 heldur Mauro Rosi frá Háskólanum í Pisa, 
Jarðvísindasviði, erindi á Veðurstofu Íslands, Bústaðavegi 7.

Tuesday 24th October at 15:00, Mauro Rosi from the University of Pisa, 
will talk at the Icelandic Met Office on Bústaðvegur.

Efni/title:How eruption forecasting and hazard evaluation capabilities 
can evolve to be better integrated within the operational management of 
volcanic crises

M. Rosi hefur mikla reynslu af eldgosa- og almannavarnamálefni. Hann 
hefur m.a. á starfsferli sínum leitt Jarðskjálfta- og eldfjalla 
skrifstofu ítölsku almannavarnanna. En þau hafa m.a. það hlutverk að 
byggja upp neyðarstjórnun og samhæfa aðgerðir og viðbrögð við 
eldfjallavá. Mikil tenging er á milli ítölsku almannavarnanna og INGV 
(National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology), sérstaklega þegar 
kemur að vöktun virkrar eldfjalla á Ítalíu

M. Rosi has extensive experience in eruption and civil protection 
issues. During his career he has led the earthquake and volcanic office 
of the Italian Civil Protection. Among other things, their role is 
emergency management and coordinating responses to volcanic eruptions. 
There is a strong link between the Italian Civil Protection and the INGV 
(National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology), especially in the 
field of volcanic monitoring in Italy.

Abstract:

Among the different natural hazards, the volcanic risk is the one that 
requires the highest integration between scientific and operational 
functions. The volcanic emergency management for the safety of people's 
lives, requires the operational function (typically coordinated by civil 
protection authorities) the preparation of emergency plans based on 
expected eruptive scenarios and the setting up of procedures for the 
activation of operational alert levels. Both activities are supported by 
scientific knowledge and by the capacity of scientific bodies to predict 
dangerous phenomena with an anticipation that is known in advance. A 
retrospective analysis of recent volcanic crisis occurred in all regions 
of the world shows, however, how the current capacity of the scientific 
institutions (volcano observatories) to make reliable predictions about 
the imminent occurrence of dangerous phenomena is, unfortunately, very 
weak with very high percentages of delayed warnings and false alarms. 
This situation requires the scientific community to: i) ensure that this 
evidence is adequately shared with the general public to avoid overly 
optimistic expectations and ii) investigate if and how possible it is to 
promote a new type of monitoring, in addition to the multi-parametric 
one, which is more oriented towards the operational and risk-management 
needs. Furthermore, operational agencies should also find a way to 
better identify their priorities and needs so that the scientific 
community could optimize their effort. In areas characterized by high 
risk for human life, the probability of life loss is reduced when the 
efficiency of the crisis management is high and the capacity to evacuate 
the population from dangerous areas in due time is realistic. The risk 
for people living in the proximity of active volcanoes is thus reduced 
only if the vulnerability of crisis management system is also reduced. 
In this sense it is essential that the civil protection and the 
scientific functions are tightly linked to be better integrated and with 
the final goal to improve crisis management capacity and to protect 
people's lives more effectively.

Við bjóðum ykkur velkomin á erindið og vonumst til að sjá ykkur sem 
flest. Endilega látið samstarfsfélaga og stúdenta vita um erindið.

All are welcome.
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